The Kursk Kamikaze: Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s border region will turn out to be self-defeating

Since Tuesday, 6 August, substantial Ukrainian forces have been fighting inside Russia. Their exact size is unclear. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defense, by 9 August, within a few days after their surprise attack, Ukrainian forces had lost almost 1,000 troops and over one hundred armored vehicles. If these figures are largely accurate – and Russia’s MOD tends to be fairly reliable in this regard – then they do not only reflect severe Ukrainian losses but also imply that the Ukrainian invasion must involve significantly more soldiers since it was still ongoing despite these casualties. According to a Russian Telegram source that is usually well-informed, multiple Ukrainian brigades and other units as well as Western mercenaries are part of the incursion force. One way or the other, it is not small.

After the attackers initially achieved surprise, Russia has been striking back hard, mobilizing forces in the area and reserves from farther away, evacuating civilians, and declaring a state of emergency. Russian media in general, including important Telegram channels, have been busy with the event. While the coverage on television expectably conforms to government positions and narratives, the Telegram sphere is, as often, much less regulated and features sharp criticism of the Russian authorities for not doing their job of waging war and protecting Russia well – and fiercely - enough. In any case, there has certainly been no news blackout about the Ukrainian incursion.

The Ukrainian leadership in Kiev, meanwhile, has been extremely sparing with statements about their own military’s attack on the Kursk region. President Zelensky has mentioned it only indirectly, if, of course, proudly, and no official explanations have been offered regarding the purpose of what is, predictably, turning into a very costly battle. One of his advisers has made a few – to be frank – banal comments that only confirm that the regime isn’t really explaining anything.