Forget About It: The Russia-US prisoner exchange heralds no return to diplomacy over Ukraine and nukes, except the West changes

Since the fairly spectacular but also hyped Cold War-style prisoner exchange between Russia and the US, some observers have wondered if this could be a harbinger of a general return to diplomacy, especially with regard to ending the needless and catastrophic war in and over Ukraine. Optimists have gone as far as to even allow themselves not only a question but some hope.

Don’t get me wrong. While, by temperament, I am no optimist, I recognize that, in principle, even optimists can get it right, occasionally. And I certainly agree with the underlying assumption, namely that we should return to diplomacy and at long last abandon our moronic repetition of that thing that has never worked, that is, our patented Western snake oil consisting of (proxy) war, sanctions, and endless hypocritical gibberish about how superior we and our so-called “rules” and “values” are.

Yet a return to diplomacy (and a minimum of reason) takes two. In this case, that means, of course, that Moscow has to agree. Yesterday it told us – and all Russians, by the way – that it will not, except we, the West, make fundamental changes to our behavior. Moscow is right. But, while I have no crystal ball, I believe that this means that a general return to diplomacy is still a far way off. Except for one but faint chance, about which more below.